Box Office Predictions: Can the power of Scorsese, DeNiro & DiCaprio take down Taylor Swift?
This week sees the release of one of the most highly anticipated films of the past few years as three titans: Robert DeNiro, Leonardo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese finally team up for the big screen adaptation of the the 2017 nonfiction book Killers of the Flower Moon: The Osage Murders and the Birth of the FBI. The film, which carries a hefty three hour and twenty six minute run time (fourteen minutes longer than Avatar: The Way of Water), is an Apple Studios/ Paramount co-production with Apple taking on the bulk of the $200 million budget to secure the rights for their Apple+ streaming service and Paramount handling theatrical distribution.
So the question is: how much money can this movie make? As we just pointed out, movies over the three hour mark such as Avatar: The Way of Water didn’t struggle to find audiences last year when it made over $2.3 billion worldwide. Of course, Killers of the Flower Moon isn’t a visual feast made for the biggest screen possible. It is a more intimate western type film that tells a very human story of the slaughter of the Osage nation. But there is one pretty big comparison we can make here: Oppenheimer clocked in at three hours on the dot and also told a very personal story void of huge special effect spectacle and managed a massive $942.1 million worldwide box office take.
Can Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon make as big a dent as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer? Probably not, that movie’s opening was fueled by the Barbenheimer craze which saw it open to over $82 million domestic (as well as being, for my money, one of the best films of not just this year, but of all time). Right now Killers is tracking to open in the $20-$25 million range. Normally an opening in that range for a movie that cost $200 million to produce before marketing would be cause for alarm, but Apple knew what they were doing when they financed this films. They spent that money for a streaming movie that they are taking theatrical out of respect for the people involved (also so that it can qualify for Awards season, where the streamer has had success in the past when it won several awards, including Best Picture, for its excellent Coda just a few years ago).
The film is already receiving some amazing reviews, including a rare perfect 10/10 from our own Chris Bumbray who says that there is no one but Scorsese who could have taken the masterful material of the book and turned it into such a beautiful film.
There is a chance Killers of the Flower Moon takes pole position this weekend, however if anyone can stand in the way of DeNiro, DiCaprio and Scorsese it’s Taylor Swift as her Eras Tour movie goes into its second week after securing a $92.8 million domestic opening ($3.2 million shy of what distributor AMC reported on Sunday, allowing Joker to keep a healthy first place finish for the October opening record). The question is how front loaded was this movie? Right now, tracking has this one losing about 60-70% of its audience which would put it around the $29 million mark. Judging from my local theater, last week nearly all shows were completely sold out, this week I am only noticing a few prime time slots filling up, but the majority of the showtimes seem to be fairly empty.
The interesting thing that has come up since The Eras Tour release is Movie Theater Etiquette. There have been many reports and you tube videos of audience members standing up and dancing and singing in the theater as if it was the actual concert. The question is: if you paid your $25 for a ticket to this movie, would you want that experience or would you want to be able to sit in your seat and enjoy the film you paid to see? For me, if I went to see this one in theaters, I paid my money to see Taylor Swift on the big screen sing her songs, not a bunch of annoying people trying to get likes on their Instagram stories and Tik Tok feeds (yes, I am in my thirties!) I guess it all depends on the setting. If I go see The Rocky Horror Picture Show, the longest running theatrical release of all time as it is still in theaters 48 years later, I expect crowd participation with rice being thrown and people pelvic thrusting in the aisles, that adds to the experience of the movie, but to see a concert film like Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour in theaters with premium pricing, I’d rather be able to pay attention to what’s on the screen. Definitely let us know in the comments where you fall on this issue.
The remainder of the top five will be your holdover titles such as The Exorcist: Believer, Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie and Saw X while Disney is giving the Christmas movie The Nightmare Before Christmas a 30th anniversary re-release in traditional theaters and Real D 3D (I own the 3D blu ray of the film and it is one I watch every year, the 3D conversion on this one is excellent.) Much like Hocus Pocus’s 30th anniversary re-release a few weeks back, I expect Nightmare Before Christmas to sell enough tickets to get into the top ten.
Do you plan on taking in a film this weekend and where do you fall on the Theater Etiquette debate? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on this weekend’s numbers.
TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour– $29 Million
Killers of the Flower Moon– $25 Million
The Exorcist: Believer– $6 Million
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie– $5 Million
Saw X– $4 million
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