Box Office Predictions: Aquaman to end the DCEU in lackluster fashion

It’s the most wonderful time of year, when movie studios release their big end of the year blockbuster films and their small prestige pictures vying for Oscar glory. Only problem is: this year Santa seems to be delivering a big lump of coal to the box office as the end of year box office relies heavily on a franchise that has completely crashed and burned throughout 2023.

That’s right, this year we don’t have any Avatar: The Way of Water or Spider-Man: No Way Home or Jumanji: the Next Level or Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. No, this years Holiday box office fate rides pretty heavily on the final film in the DC Extended Universe, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. Granted, this is the DC film that has the biggest shot at success as the first film is the highest grossing DC film of all time (not just Extended Universe, but all DC films) with a worldwide take of $1.15 Billion. 

Of course, that number came in 2018 when people still had faith in the DCEU, even after the most triumphant bomb that was Joss Whedon’s Justice League. This year, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom comes on the heels of 3 consecutive box office disasters in Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash and Blue Beetle that all have a combined worldwide take of $533.6 million, which admittedly doesn’t sound horrible, until you figure in the nearly $450 million production cost of those 3 films before marketing which at minimum doubles that number.

So yeah, its been a bad year for DC, and as much as I like James Gunn, some of the comments he has made about his new DC Universe has me a bit worried about where that one will go as well (sorry Mr. Gunn, but Matt Reeve’s Batman and any affiliated sequels or TV series, such as the Arkham show, should NOT take place in your DC Universe. They should be in their own isolated worlds the way movies used to be. You created a label called DC Elseworlds for these stand alone projects and before you even have your office set up you are already messing with it.)

So the question is: will Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom crash and burn like the rest of the 2023 DC slate? Short answer is Yes. Long answer is, this film has been plagued with all sorts of behind the scenes issues including a highly publicized trial that saw the world turn on one of the franchises main stars, Amber Heard (even her own costar turned on her it seems with Heard saying that Jason Momoa showed up drunk to set dressed like Johnny Depp.) The film has also seen extensive reshoots after several test screenings were held and words like “unwatchable” were thrown around. Did they do enough to turn around the fates on this DC sequel? Well, as of this writing the review embargo has just lifted and the results appear to be a resounding: nope! Shortly after the embargo lifted the film has a Rotten Tomatoes score of just 38% with our own Chris Bumbray calling the film a “dull slog” in his 5/10 review. 

That is a shame because I quite like James Wan as a filmmaker. The original Saw changed the game on modern horror and presented one of the greatest endings in movie history while his Conjuring films (the first 2) were genuinely creepy films that would keep even the toughest person awake at night. On Furious 7 he was given an impossible task of completing a film after one of its main stars tragically passed away and he did so with an ending that would make even a person with the most hardened of hearts shed a tear. Even his first dive into the world of Aquaman was a crowd pleasing superhero film. So it is a shame to see that, according to the critics, this movie is just not good. 

Current tracking on Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has it hitting around $40 million for the full four day weekend (including Christmas on Monday) which means around $34 million for the 3-day take. Generally I would think that the holiday plus the lack of big tent pole sized movies in the market could get this one to go higher, but I think at this point the DCEU is D.O.A and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is going to be another bomb for the studio.

Second place will likely go to Wonka as families catch up on this musical prequel that opened last week with just under $40 million. I actually think this one will have a fairly solid hold as the film has good word of mouth (including an A- cinemascore and a 91% audience score). I think a $30 million 3-day is likely, but I could even see this one flying higher and landing in first place if Aquaman completely craps the bed.

As this is the final push of 2023, there are several other new films hitting theaters this weekend to get excited about. You have a hit Broadway show making its transition to the big screen with the remake of The Color Purple that has already secured 5 Critics Choice nominations alongside 2 Golden Globe nominations and could see an opening in the $10 million range, although keep in mind just a few years ago Steven Spielberg remade West Side Story and that also had some big prestige behind it before it completely tanked at the box office. 

For the family crowd you have Migration which is also looking to do about $10 million for the 3-day weekend, which is not very good for a family film. Of course if you look back to last year, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opened to a lackluster $12.4 million before having a final domestic total of $185.5 million. So if Migration can pull in solid word of mouth, it has a shot at sticking around the top ten for a while, especially when you see that there isn’t another animated family film hitting theaters until March 8, 2024 when Kung Fu Panda 4 is released.

Fifth place could go to a number of films, whether it be the George Clooney directed true story The Boys in the Boat, the Zac Efron starring true story The Iron Claw or the Michael Man directed true story Ferrari, but the most likely film to land in that coveted spot will be the new R rated romantic comedy Anyone But You starring Top Gun: Maverick’s Glenn Powell and Euphoria’s Sydney Sweeney. The film has had some solid marketing materials that make it look like a genuinely funny throwback old school R rated romantic comedy featuring two stars who are on the fast track to the A-List. Due to the number of films in the marketplace this weekend, I don’t think this one will see an opening like this summer’s Jennifer Lawrence starring No Hard Feelings ($15 million debut) but an opening around $9 million is possible.

Do your holiday plans include taking in a delightful feature film? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom– $34 Million

Wonka– $30 Million

Migration– $10 Million

The Color Purple– $10 Million

Anyone But You– $9 Million

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