Box Office Predictions: Mean Girls and The Beekeeper look to defeat Wonka
With last weekend’s Night Swim failing to garner the type of numbers other horror films have seen in January and landing in the second place spot to the holiday juggernaut that is Wonka, this weekend should finally see the first new number one movie of 2024. The question is: will it be the remake/ broadway adaptation Mean Girls or the Jason Statham revenge tale The Beekeeper?
It’s going to be Mean Girls. It wasn’t really much of a question if I am being honest. Mean Girls should easily land on top of the weekend box office as it is based off a property that is still very much in the zeitgeist. Twenty years ago SNL head writer Tina Fey brought to screens an adaptation of the book Queen Bees and Wannabes by Rosalind Wiseman. That book was more of a straight laced “how to” book for parents about the current state of cliques and how to deal with your high school aged daughters. In the hands of Tina Fey, the award winning comedian was able to transform that book into a genuinely funny take on high school life told through the eyes of Lindsay Lohan’s Cady Heron alongside future Oscar Nominees Rachel McAdams and Amanda Seyfried as well as future Emmy Nominee Lizzy Caplan and the future queen of Hallmark, Lacey Chabert. Mean Girls would open on April 30, 2004 to an impressive $24.4 million on its way to a domestic take of $86 million ($130.1 million worldwide).
Even more impressive was how the film seemed to capture the world. Everyone kept trying to make “fetch” happen, so it was no real surprise when it was announced that the film would be given the Broadway musical makeover. The production would go on to be nominated for 12 Tony awards including Best Musical and would run for over two years on Broadway before closing up shop in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
It would be the same year that Fey announced that a film adaptation of the stage musical was in active development. Now, four years later we have a new Mean Girls gracing our screens. I am a big fan of the original film, in the realm of high school classics, it stands toe to toe with the likes of Breakfast Club and Clueless so when I saw the first trailer for this new film and noticed all of the recycled jokes, I got a bit worried. Sad to say, after seeing the film last night, this is an adaptation that just does not survive the stage-to-screen jump. I wish they would have decided to take the story and make it different in some way while bringing the songs from the stage production along with it. But for now, the film serves as a near shot for shot remake of the original with every joke recycled and not nearly the charm or charisma that the original film had. If there was one bright spot, I would have to say it was Auli’i Cravalho (who famously voiced Moana) as Janis Sarkasian (the role originated by Lizzy Caplan). Her performance in the film never felt like a pale imitation, but was genuinely making the role her own, even while spouting off identical lines from the original film. I will also say that, in twenty years since the original film, Tina Fey has not seemed to age a single day!
But enough of my critique of the film, the real question is: how much money is this movie going to make this weekend? Right now the film is looking to do in the $30 million range for its debut weekend, which seems about right as this film has a lot of momentum from girls in their teens who may be discovering the material for the first time and for 30-40 year olds who fell in love with the original twenty years ago. The real question is how front loaded will it be? As I said, being such a big fan of the original, this movie just didn’t work for me. But am I in the minority with that opinion? I will be very curious to see the audience and cinema scores for this one.
Second place will likely be a fight between the big holiday champ Wonka and the Jason Statham/ David Ayer new release The Beekeeper. I saw Beekeeper last week at one of those AMC advanced screenings and the IMAX theater was pretty full, which tells me there is an audience for this R rated tale of revenge. As such, I think this one has the edge to take the second place spot with around $11 million in receipts, especially since it has the benefit of those IMAX screens. As with our own Tyler Nichols, who gave the film a 7/10 in his review, I found this movie to be a solid throwback to early 90’s, one man wrecking crew, slightly cheesy, action movies. It was engaging throughout, mainly due to the sheer star power of Jason Statham, who even if he is in a bad movie (*cough* Meg 2, Expend4bles *cough*) is still magnetic on the screen. This movie is not the second coming of John Wick but it is a genuinely solid Saturday night out at the movies.
That will leave Wonka in third place with around $10 million in receipts, of course there is an X factor here and that comes by way of the surprising durability of the R rated romantic comedy Anyone But You which has seen a tremendous hold at the box office since its debut nearly four weeks ago. The Sydney Sweeney/ Glen Powell starring film actually came in first place at the box office throughout the week and should continue to garner strong numbers this weekend, although I think it will come up short of beating Wonka, but not by much, with a weekend in the $9 million range.
That leaves spot five to go to those animated birds of Migration. The film with voice talent by Kumail Nanjiani, Elizabeth Banks, Danny DeVito, Awkwafina, Keegan-Michael Key, Carol Kane and Isabela Merced, has played the long game at the box office, opening to an underwhelming $12.4 million. But solid word of mouth has led the film to maintain momentum with small week to week drops and a fifth weekend in the $7-$8 million range.
Outside of the top five will likely see American Fiction make its debut in the top ten as it expands into more theaters following its solid limited run, with people likely wanting to check out this SAG Award nominated film (Best Ensemble, Best Lead Actor, Best Supporting Actor). I also expect Poor Things to gain some momentum following its Golden Globes win for Best Picture- Musical or Comedy alongside Emma Stone’s win in the Lead Actress- Musical or Comedy category (a performance I genuinely hope she takes home the Oscar for. I know Lilly Gladstone has the edge right now in the Lead Actress category, but Emma Stone 100% deserves that statue when it is handed out in March.)
Do your weekend plans include taking in a delightful feature film? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the weekend numbers are heading.
TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS
Mean Girls– $30 Million
The Beekeeper– $11 Million
Wonka– $10 Million
Anyone But You– $9 Million
Migration– $7.5 Million
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