Box Office Predictions: Will Fantastic Four have a bigger first weekend than Superman?

Marvel has had a rough year at the box office. After releasing only one film last year—the mega-hit Deadpool & Wolverine—the studio was still reeling from the disastrous performance of The Marvels. This year hasn’t been much better, with Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts both opening to modest (by Marvel standards) numbers: $88.4 million and $76 million, respectively.

The good news? Fantastic Four: First Steps is almost certain to outperform both. That said, I don’t expect it to open as big as Superman.

Why? Simply put, there’s very little hype surrounding the film. Hardcore Marvel fans will show up no matter what, but many are still feeling burnt out after a string of underwhelming releases. Positive word of mouth and strong reviews—including ours—will help, and I think it’ll have a solid debut. Still, I’m predicting an opening around $95 million.

That’s on the low end of industry projections, with some insiders suggesting it could beat Superman and open to $135 million. Personally, I find that highly unlikely.

Superman will likely hold second place with a weekend around $30 million, continuing its strong run toward a $300 million domestic total. It might even surpass Aquaman and Joker’s $335 million tallies, though topping Wonder Woman’s $400 million-plus haul seems out of reach.

Meanwhile, Jurassic Park: Rebirth is expected to follow closely with a $12 million weekend, keeping it on track for a $300 million final gross. Smurfs will cling to some family audience interest with $8 million—still a major flop—while I Know What You Did Last Summer will plummet with just $7 million, all but guaranteeing a fast track to streaming.

Do you think Fantastic Four will open bigger than Superman? Let us know in the comments!

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