Box Office Predictions: The Naked Gun and The Bad Guys 2 battling the Fantastic Four

This weekend is shaping up to be one of the more interesting ones in recent memory. No less than three wide releases are hitting theaters: The Naked Gun, The Bad Guys 2, and Together. But the twist? None of them are actually competing for the top spot. That position is essentially locked in for Fantastic Four: First Steps, which is expected to hold onto number one for a second straight weekend. Instead, the real battle is for second place.

First, let’s talk about Fantastic Four. As a Marvel movie, it’s a safe bet for the top spot, though it’s likely headed for a 60% drop in its second weekend—meaning a haul in the $45–50 million range. That would still be a stronger sophomore showing than either Thunderbolts or Captain America: Brave New World managed.

So, what about second place?

The movie I’m rooting for is The Naked Gun, Paramount’s hilarious reboot starring Liam Neeson and Pamela Anderson. The reviews are strong, so why the muted box office expectations? It’s less about the film’s quality and more about the state of theatrical comedies, which have struggled lately as audiences gravitate toward streaming. That’s a shame, because there’s nothing better than watching a truly funny movie with a crowd—and this one is genuinely funny. I still think it’ll beat the $15 million projections and open closer to $25 million, which would be a big win.

The Bad Guys 2 shouldn’t be far behind, likely pulling in around $22 million. Animated family films have been underperforming this summer—Elio and Smurfs both flopped—and the original Bad Guys opened with $23 million. Expect a similar start here.

As for Neon’s Together, I don’t think it stands a chance of beating Superman, which is looking at a $15 million weekend. Honestly, Together might not even crack the top five—my gut says Jurassic World: Rebirth will edge it out with around $8 million.

Here are my weekend predictions:

Fantastic Four: First Steps – $45 million

The Naked Gun – $25 million

The Bad Guys 2 – $22 million

Superman – $15 million

Jurassic World: Rebirth – $8 million

What do you think will win the weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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