Box Office Predictions: Tron Ares to lead the weekend with a so-so opening

In a lot of ways, Tron has always been the little franchise that could, at least as far as Disney is concerned. It’s always been a series that should have made a lot of money, but each film has proven to be a box office disappointment—although they’ve more or less managed to break even.

1982’s Tron had the misfortune of opening during one of the greatest sci-fi summers of all time (in between E.T., Star Trek II, Blade Runner, The Thing, and many others), but it still made a small profit. Twenty-eight years later, Tron: Legacy—which sported a massive budget—also only managed to roughly break even, putting the live-action side of the franchise on ice for another fifteen years.

This weekend, Disney is trying again with Tron: Ares, and it looks like it will have a solid, if unspectacular, opening in the $40 million range. Given that the movie cost around $150 million, some may say that means it’s a flop, but these films have traditionally performed well overseas. Like the other two entries, it probably won’t lose Disney any money. The box office draw of star Jared Leto is certainly a question mark, but the visual effects and a soundtrack by Nine Inch Nails should be strong selling points.

Probably the best news for Tron: Ares is that Taylor Swift: Official Release Party of a Showgirl has closed after its limited engagement, so there will be no competition from Swifties. The runner-up this weekend should be the excellent Roofman, starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst. While it will likely only open in the $8 million range, it’s such a strong film that word of mouth and Oscar buzz should give it some box office staying power. One Battle After Another won’t be far behind with about $6 million, while The Smashing Machine should make around $3.5 million, followed closely by Gabby’s Dollhouse with $3 million. It’s unlikely that the J-Lo vehicle Kiss of the Spider Woman will make much more than $2 million.

Here’s our predictions: 

Tron: Ares: $40 million

Roofman: $8 million

One Battle After Another: $6 million

The Smashing Machine: $3.5 million

Gabby’s Dollhouse: $3 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments! 

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