Box Office Predictions: Project Hail Mary shooting for the stars

This weekend sees the release of one of the year’s most anticipated films, Project Hail Mary. Boasting a budget in the $200 million range, it’s one of several huge gambles Amazon/MGM is making on theatrical films this year, with it having been shot by directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller in a variety of premium formats. It’s getting a large-scale IMAX release, as well as select 70MM screenings (some of which actually happened last weekend). The film comes with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating (we gave it a rave you can read here), and audiences are bound to like this adaptation of Andy Weir’s book, with his previous novel, The Martian, having been a huge pre-pandemic hit.

Some believe the film could open north of $70 million. As much as I want it to succeed, I think that number is wildly overinflated. The Martian only opened with $54 million, and that was pre-pandemic, when movies made more money, and it also starred Matt Damon, whose box office draw has been consistent. Folks love Ryan Gosling, but outside of Barbie, his movies have performed inconsistently, with The Fall Guy having underperformed despite great reviews. I’m thinking a $40 million opening is more likely, with $50 million a possibility.

The bigger question is whether it will have legs, as The Martian opened at $54 million but went on to gross $228 million domestically (it was an even bigger hit overseas). Project Hail Mary has an easy path to the top spot at the box office both this week and next week, before the next Super Mario movie comes out over Easter.

Pixar’s Hoppers should easily take number two with about $15 million. It had a good hold last weekend and will clear $100 million by the time the numbers roll in Sunday night. The Colleen Hoover adaptation, Reminders of Him, should make about $10 million, with it likely to have legs, just like the last Hoover adaptation, Regretting You.

Fourth place should go to the sequel Ready or Not 2: Here I Come with about $7 million. That’s not too far off from the $8 million the last one opened with, but it seems unlikely this will be the kind of sequel that really builds on its predecessor. Scream 7 should leapfrog over A24’s Undertone this weekend with about $4 million.

Here are my predictions:

Project Hail Mary: $40 million

Hoppers: $15 million

Reminders of Him: $10 million

Ready or Not 2: Here I Come: $7 million

Scream 7: $4 million

What will you be seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.

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