Box Office: Super Mario Galaxy sets an April record + holiday predictions

Back in 2023, The Super Mario Bros. Movie set box office records, with a 3-day opening weekend gross of $146.3 million and a $204.6 million holiday weekend gross. Universal and Illumination are hoping lightning strikes twice by opening the sequel, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, in the same Easter weekend slot, and so far it seems to be working like a charm. According to Deadline’s early numbers, the sequel grossed $34 million on its Wednesday opening night, narrowly beating the $33.1 million Project Hail Mary earned on its first full day, making it the biggest opening day of the year. It’s also the biggest opening day ever in April, beating the $31.7 million record set by the first film.

With that in mind, how much is The Super Mario Galaxy Movie likely to gross this holiday weekend? Despite the huge early numbers, it will likely fall slightly short of the original. Deadline is predicting $128.2 million over the weekend, which would give it a $186 million total by the end of the holiday. That’s just slightly below the original, but it could also surprise people and just as easily blast past the $200 million mark over the holiday. It comes down to how the film is received (read our review HERE). Even if it doesn’t cross $200 million this weekend, though, it’s going to print money for Universal and Illumination, so expect many more Mario (and other Nintendo movies) from them in the next few years.

So where does that leave Project Hail Mary? Good word of mouth is going to give it another terrific weekend, with a solid $30 million (maybe more) for the three-day weekend in the works. There’s a good, older chunk of the audience that won’t want to see Mario, so expect Project Hail Mary to be a huge Easter movie weekend option for some. Amazon really positioned this one well, as it had two weekends more or less to itself, while also benefitting from the huge Easter crowds in its third weekend.

The big question mark this weekend is A24’s The Drama. It has a hot cast, which includes Zendaya and Robert Pattinson as the leads, but the movie’s ultra-dark twist is already out there, with it proving to be divisive (I liked it). I expect it to have a big first night but then drop over the course of the weekend, meaning it should make about $8–10 million. I imagine the CinemaScore will be in the C range, which will hurt it as the weekend goes on.

Here are our predictions:

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $128 million

Project Hail Mary: $30 million

The Drama: $10 million

Hoppers: $8 million

Reminders of Him: $3 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.

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