Weekend Box Office Predictions: Super Mario Galaxy will be on top again

Lightning struck twice for Super Mario at the Easter box office, with The Super Mario Galaxy Movie coming close to hitting the record-breaking numbers achieved by the first film on Easter 2023. No one has any doubt over whether or not it’s going to top the box office again in week two. Rather, the question is how much it’s going to drop. The first film did something rare, in that it only fell 36% in week two, which is crazy considering how high it opened. However, given the mixed reviews and only decent word of mouth (it scored an A-minus CinemaScore rating), it’s definitely not looking at the same kind of hold. It should fall about 50% in its second weekend, meaning it’s looking at a gross in the $70 million range, which would still be a hefty number for what should only be the first in a long series of sequels.

Another movie expected to continue to do well is Amazon/MGM’s Project Hail Mary, which should make in the $18 million range this weekend as it climbs toward a finish in the $300 million-plus range. It will easily top A24’s The Drama, with the Zendaya and Robert Pattinson-led drama (with a messed-up twist) likely to fall significantly, by about 60%, so it should have about a $6 million weekend. It will easily be beaten by the rom-com You, Me & Tuscany, which sports a buzzy cast including The Little Mermaid’s Halle Bailey and Bridgerton’s Regé-Jean Page in his return to the romance genre. It should make at least $10 million, but it also has the potential of being a breakout hit. We’ll have to wait and see. IFC/Shudder’s remake of Faces of Death should squeak into the top 5 with about $4 million.

Here are our predictions: 

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $70 million

Project Hail Mary: $18 million

You, Me & Tuscany: $10 million

The Drama: $6 million

Faces of Death: $4 million

What are you seeing this weekend?

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