Box Office Predictions: Superman will open with at least $100 million

This is a huge weekend for WB and James Gunn’s relaunched DCU, with the first official movie in the continuity, Superman, hitting theaters. All eyes will be on the film to see if it can pave the way for Gunn’s new label to truly take DC to the next level. The good news for Superman is that the reviews are largely excellent (even if I was cool on it), and based on pre-sales and general interest, a $100 million debut is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

But will it match how much Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel opened with back in 2013? That film made $116 million—not adjusted for inflation—with the sequel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, grossing even more with a $166 million opening. Those are big numbers, but ironically, both films were deemed box office failures, as WB had a $1 billion worldwide gross as their target.

A decade later, the film business has changed significantly, with tentpole movies no longer guaranteed the kind of numbers they once pulled in. Gunn himself is pushing back on the idea that Superman needs to make upwards of $700 million worldwide to be considered a success.

Another issue is that superhero fatigue is real, with both Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts underperforming significantly this year. While Fantastic Four: First Steps will likely take the brunt of this phenomenon, Superman still faces an uphill battle if it wants to open with true blockbuster numbers.

My thinking is that it’s a lock for about $100–110 million. Anything less would be considered hugely disappointing, but I think fan interest will push it just slightly over that mark. Jurassic World: Rebirth has the misfortune of having Superman cut into its second-week business, and given the poor word of mouth (a B CinemaScore), I’m predicting it’ll fall hard—to about $30 million. F1 should be able to crank out another $12 million, despite losing many of its premium screens to Superman, while How to Train Your Dragon and Elio should round out the top five.

Here are my predictions:

Superman: $100–110 million

Jurassic World: Rebirth: $30 million

F1: $12 million

How to Train Your Dragon: $8 million

Elio: $4 million

How do you think Superman will fare this weekend? Let us know in the comments!

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