Weekend Box Office – Avatar: Fire and Ash has a strikingly soft opening
Is James Cameron’s Box Office Golden Streak Finally Over?
Is James Cameron’s golden streak finally over? That’s the question likely on the minds of many studio executives this weekend, with Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third film in his saga, opening to a surprisingly modest $88 million domestically — less than the $100 million we predicted and a full $46 million lower than The Way of Water earned on the same weekend three years ago.
Given the franchise’s massive budgets, Cameron himself has recently acknowledged that Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 may not move forward if the box office doesn’t justify the expense. An $88 million domestic opening makes it clear that Fire and Ash will earn only a fraction of the $684 million domestic total achieved by the previous film.
Can Avatar: Fire and Ash Rebound Over the Holidays?
That said, the holiday corridor is approaching, and Cameron’s films have historically overperformed during this period. Neither Titanic nor the first Avatar opened in game-changing fashion, but both became legendary long-legged hits. The same could still be true for Fire and Ash.
Overseas, the film is performing far better, posting a $345 million global opening, the second-largest worldwide debut of the year (behind Zootopia 2).
Angel Studios Scores Its Biggest Opening Ever
Angel Studios’ David, an animated musical retelling of the David and Goliath story, proved to be a grassroots hit. The film opened to $21 million, the biggest debut in the studio’s history, surpassing Sound of Freedom, which previously held the record with $19 million.
The Housemaid Could Become a Holiday Sleeper
Lionsgate’s star-driven The Housemaid opened softer than expected with $19 million (the studio was tracking in the teens, but given the star power and the fact that it’s based on a bestseller, it could have had a bigger opening), but the comparison point may be Sydney Sweeney’s Anyone But You, which debuted with a disastrous $6 million on the same weekend two years ago before legging out to an $88 million domestic total. The Housemaid could follow a similar holiday sleeper trajectory and potentially make a bundle.
Family Films Battle for Position
Paramount’s The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Search for SquarePants appeared to lose some ground, likely due to David overperforming, and earned $16 million for the weekend.
It narrowly edged out Zootopia 2, which added $14.5 million, bringing its domestic total to $282 million.
Holdovers Continue to Perform
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 crossed the $100 million domestic mark, earning $7.25 million this weekend for an impressive $108 million total.
Wicked: For Good is beginning to lose screens but still pulled in $4.3 million, bringing its domestic total to $320 million— well below the first film, but still a strong result.
The Bollywood megahit Dhurandhar added $2.4 million, reaching $12 million domestically, while Hamnet rounded out the top ten with $850,000, pushing its total to $8.7 million.
A24’s Marty Supreme Steals the Spotlight
The biggest story of the weekend may be the film in ninth place: A24’s Marty Supreme.
The Timothée Chalamet-led film (which we loved) grossed a massive $875,000 on just six screens, selling out nearly around the clock. Its $145.8K per-screen average is the highest in A24’s history and one of the top ten live-action per-screen averages ever.
The numbers strongly suggest Marty Supreme will be a major hit when it expands nationwide on Christmas Day, though it remains to be seen whether audiences outside its core LA and New York hubs will embrace it as enthusiastically.
What’s Next at the Holiday Box Office?
With Christmas just around the corner, the box office landscape is poised to shift dramatically. Whether Avatar: Fire and Ash finds its legs, and which films emerge as true holiday breakouts, will soon become clear.
We’ll be back later this week with more holiday box office reporting.
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