Box Office Predictions: Project Hail Mary has an easy path to number 1
Project Hail Mary Dominates with Massive Opening
Last weekend had perhaps the biggest success story — box office-wise — of the year (thus far), when Christopher Miller and Phil Lord’s Project Hail Mary topped the box office with $80.5 million. It was a huge win for original films, with it being the second biggest non-franchise film of all time as far as opening weekends go (it fell just short of Oppenheimer’s$82.4 million opening).
What’s also worth noting is that Project Hail Mary, which has an excellent A CinemaScore, has been performing unusually well at the weekday box office, with it making over $9 million on Tuesday, bringing its domestic total blazing past $100 million.
Can It Hold Strong in Week Two?
So, how will it fare in week two? Many are curious whether it will be able to have a hold of under 50%, which would be considered excellent for a movie like this. Given the word of mouth, a weekend in the $40–50 million range would be terrific. I’m thinking about $42 million, as one needs to keep in mind that the opening weekend contained a week of pre-screenings in 70mm and other special showings. Even still, that would be a terrific result for an original film, and who knows — maybe we’re looking at a hold in the Sinners echelon, where it only fell off about 5% in week two (although that’s almost unheard of for a movie that opens north of $80 million).
Pixar’s Hoppers Holds Strong Ahead of Mario
Pixar’s Hoppers should have no trouble taking second place, with about $12 million. This will likely be the last weekend Hoppers has the family audience to itself, as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie opens next weekend (just in time for Easter) and will no doubt be a monster hit.
Why They Will Kill You May Open Soft
But what about They Will Kill You? Despite coming from Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema — who’ve had an amazing track record, especially as far as horror goes — They Will Kill You isn’t expected to have a major opening, with it looking at about $8 million. Why so low? It could be that it’s simply opening too hot on the heels of Ready or Not 2: Here I Come, to which the movie shares a lot of similarities. Opening them a week apart is a head-scratcher, especially as They Will Kill You is really good and would have killed in January or February.
The Rest of the Top Five
The Bollywood hit Dhurandhar: The Revenge also has a chance of making the top five, although those movies tend to be front-loaded in North America. I expect Ready or Not: Here I Come to hit number four with about $5 million, while Reminders of Him should do $4 million, with Dhurandhar not too far behind.
Weekend Box Office Predictions
Here are my predictions:
Project Hail Mary: $42 million
Hoppers: $12 million
They Will Kill You: $8 million
Ready or Not: Here I Come: $5 million
Reminders of Him: $4 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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