After Years of Sequels, Original Movies Are Suddenly Winning at the Box Office
Are Original Movies Making a Comeback at the Box Office?
Project Hail Mary is quickly becoming one of the biggest box office stories of the year. Not only did it open far above expectations, but it’s also holding remarkably well, with a projected second-week drop of just 35–40% — a rare feat in an era where most blockbusters fall 50–60% or more (Scream 7 recently had a huge 74% week 2 drop).
But here’s the bigger question: is this just a one-off — or are original movies finally starting to beat franchises again?
Franchises Weren’t Always King
When I look back at my early moviegoing days in the nineties, sequels, at least compared to now, were relatively rare. Sure, they made them, but they didn’t dominate the box office the way they do now. Let’s go back thirty years to 1996. Do you know how many movies in the top 10 biggest grossers of the year were sequels?
None.
That’s right — every movie in the top 10 was an original. Here’s the list:
Independence Day
Twister
Mission: Impossible
The Rock
The Nutty Professor
Ransom
The Birdcage
A Time to Kill
101 Dalmatians
The First Wives Club
Of course, of the top 10, five of those movies did eventually get sequels, but for some of them (Independence Day, Twister), it took decades, with only Mission: Impossible spawning a real franchise. What’s also noteworthy is the variety, with the list having action movies, comedies, a thriller (Ransom — representing a genre that’s almost dead nowadays), and a legal thriller (A Time to Kill). Not a sequel among them.
Franchises Have Dominated the Box Office for Years
What happened was that in the 2010s, in the heyday of Marvel, studios all tried to copy its success, leading to a massive increase in the number of sequels and franchise movies being made. Suddenly, at least half (or maybe more) of the yearly top 10 would be comprised of franchise movies. In 2024, every movie in the top 10, outside of Wicked, was a sequel.
Enter Project Hail Mary — A Rare Original Breakout
To be sure, I wasn’t sure Project Hail Mary was going to be a massive hit. It was a huge gamble for the studio that produced it, Amazon/MGM, with them spending over $200 million on a movie that’s not a sequel or part of an established franchise. Rather, it was an adaptation of a popular book. This actually worked before with Andy Weir’s own The Martian, but that was a Ridley Scott movie starring Matt Damon, a proven box office draw, and it came out before the pandemic, which sparked a notable decline in moviegoing.
It also starred Ryan Gosling, who’s never really headlined a huge blockbuster on his own, with his recent The Fall Guy being considered a box office flop. Yet, it worked — and really well at that.
Meanwhile, Some Franchises Are Showing Signs of Fatigue
The last few years have been hard on some of the established franchises. The MCU has been at a low ebb, with several recent movies, including The Marvels, Captain America: Brave New World, and Thunderbolts, all failing to break even at the box office. Sure, they’ve had some notable hits, including the massively successful Deadpool & Wolverine, but the MCU label is no longer bulletproof.
Some of the other once-bulletproof franchises of years past also seem to be in decline. The Fast and the Furious series was one of the biggest franchises of the last twenty years, but they’ve struggled to launch a new entry since Fast X Part I underperformed (although Vin Diesel keeps promising a new one is coming soon). Star Wars has also been troubled on the big screen, although Disney is going to try and revive it with two new movies, The Mandalorian & Grogu, which comes out in May, and then Star Wars: Starfighter, which is out in 2027 and has Ryan Gosling starring in it.
Why Original Movies Might Be Connecting Again
So, reading this, you might be thinking that Project Hail Mary is an isolated case. In fact, it’s surprisingly not, with 2025 actually having quite a few movies that connected with audiences that weren’t franchises. Many of them came from Warner Bros., who took some big swings last year. A Minecraft Movie (which is based on the video game) was the biggest hit of the year. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners was another original movie that connected in a huge way (and ended up becoming one of the most acclaimed films of the year).
The Role of Word of Mouth (And CinemaScore)
One thing that seems to make a big difference is word of mouth. Every week, CinemaScore polls opening weekend audiences for their opinions on new releases. Some of the biggest recent original hits had amazing scores, with Project Hail Mary and Sinners both nabbing an A. By contrast, Scream 7 nabbed a B-minus, which is considered pretty middling (but is average for a horror film). Captain America: Brave New World also scored a B-minus.
It seems for a movie to have good word of mouth, you need to score in the A-minus to B+ range, with A the gold standard. The excellent scores achieved by Project Hail Mary and Sinners prove that audiences actually liked the movies they went to see, which is key, as when a movie only gets mediocre word of mouth, that’s when folks often decide to “wait for streaming.”
But Let’s Not Bury Franchises Just Yet
Of course, one can’t say that franchises are dead or even on their way out. One of the reasons they will always be made is how they play internationally. Outside of F1 and A Minecraft Movie, every movie in the international top 10 this year was part of a franchise. Sinners only made the top 20.
This year also has a few franchise movies that seem likely to explode, including the box office showdown of the year: Dune Part 3 vs Avengers: Doomsday. And then, of course, even studios like Amazon/MGM are still banking on franchises, with them trying to relaunch the James Bond series and — reportedly — even pushing for a Project Hail Mary sequel.
Is This a Trend — Or Just a Moment?
It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of 2026’s movies perform, as a lot of the most anticipated movies of 2026 are indeed sequels. As far as originals that could make the top 10 at the end of the year, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey seems like a no-brainer, but then again, so does something like Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
So here’s the thing Hollywood needs to be more mindful of — balance. People will still flock to franchise movies if they are well done. If Spider-Man: Brand New Day or Avengers: Doomsday happen to be great, they might be the two biggest movies of the year. But original movies, which give audiences the unexpected and a full experience (without leaving them hanging on the promise of a sequel), are important too.
Hopefully, the success of movies like Project Hail Mary, Weapons, and Sinners teaches studios that lesson. Not everything needs to be a franchise.
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