Box Office Predictions: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie will have no trouble holding on to the top spot

After two straight weekends at number one, once again The Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie will have trouble hanging on to the top spot in its third weekend. Last weekend’s 48% decline was modest for a movie of this scale, so this weekend it should still manage to make about $35 million on its way to a domestic tally that should wind up in the $450 million region. Were it not for the release of Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, I’d say it had a clear path to becoming the year’s top film — but we’ll have to see.

The big question mark for me this weekend is Lee Cronin’s The Mummy. Warner and New Line have had a good track record with horror, despite the recent failure of They Will Kill You, but early buzz on the film is solid, with people calling it one of the more disturbing and violent horror films in recent memory. How that will translate to the box office is the question, as when audiences think of The Mummy, they think of Brendan Fraser and adventure, not horror. I think curious horror fans will propel it to a $13 million opening, but it could make way less.

My theory is that Project Hail Mary will actually come out ahead of it by the time Sunday rolls around, with it still on track to make about $15 million as it gets ever closer to the $300 million mark. The Drama should hit fourth place with about $6 million, as it’s proven to be more resilient at the box office in terms of legs than foreseen. You, Me and Tuscany shouldn’t be too far behind with $5 million, although I imagine that film’s distributor, Universal, is hoping it will have better legs after its underwhelming opening. Let’s also not forget that Theo Von and David Spade’s Busboys is also getting a release this weekend, although it’s playing exclusively in Regal and Cinemark theaters. Could it be a surprise entry into the top five? We’ll find out this weekend.

Our predictions: 

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie: $35 million

Project Hail Mary: $15 million

Lee Cronin’s The Mummy: $13 million

The Drama: $6 million

You, Me and Tuscany: $5 million

What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments. 

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